Sign up for GZERO Media's global politics newsletter

{{ subpage.title }}

Supporters of the Christian Lebanese Forces party react as votes are being counted in Lebanon's parliamentary election.

REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

What We're Watching: Lebanon's future, Russian dissent, Latin Americans ditch US summit

What Hezbollah’s loss means for Lebanon

Days after Lebanese voters went to the polls for the first time since the economy imploded three years ago, Hezbollah – Iran-backed militants dubbed a terrorist group by the US – has lost its parliamentary majority. Its coalition, which includes Amal, another Shia party, and the Free Patriotic Movement, a Christian bloc, won 61 seats, down from 71. Reformist parties that emerged amid mass protests over economic inequality and corruption in recent years reaped about 10% of seats. The Saudi-allied Lebanese Forces also gained new seats, suggesting that many Lebanese voters support warmer ties with Riyadh in hopes it can help ease their economic woes. Still, only 41% of eligible voters turned up, reflecting widespread apathy and disdain for the political elite, who have enriched themselves for decades while large swaths of the population descended into poverty. The election was notably plagued by allegations of voter fraud. Things will get thorny this fall when President Michael Aoun, a Hezbollah ally, finishes his term. The presidency is a powerful post in Lebanon, charged with appointing the PM and leading the military. Hezbollah will push hard for a replacement who will safeguard their – and Iran’s – regional interests, likely impeding progress on political and economic reforms needed to unlock foreign loans.

Read Now Show less
War in Europe. Russia Invades Ukraine. | Quick Take | GZERO Media

War in Europe: Russia invades Ukraine

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here, back in the office in New York. A Quick Take for you on where we are in this war against Ukraine.

Massive military intervention. We've all seen almost 200,000 Russian troops that had been arrayed all along Ukraine's borders, direct land, air, and cyber. This is bombs that are falling across all of Ukraine, including even the far west. Hard to imagine this war will last long, at least the early stages. The Ukrainian government will surely fall, likely flee, and end up in exile someplace outside of Ukraine's borders. President Putin has said that this will not be an occupation. Of course, President Putin has also said over the past weeks that there was no intention to invade. He lied then; he's lying now. There is no purpose of diplomacy, at least at this point between the United States, the Europeans, and Russia. Meanwhile, it's all about what can be done to help the Ukrainians defend themselves as best they can. And this is clearly going to be at best at the margins, because the Russians have overwhelming military capabilities.

Read Now Show less
Ukraine Crisis Poses Risk to Baltic States says Former President of Estonia | GZERO World

Ukraine is fighting for all of us, says Estonia's former president Kersti Kaljulaid

Some analysts say that if Russia takes either part or all of Ukraine, its territorial ambitions are unlikely to stop there. It could pose a threat to other former Soviet Republics that have joined NATO. Kersti Kaljulaid, former president of Estonia (2016-2021), says that the risks to other Baltic states are significant if the collective response to Russia’s ongoing aggression is “weak.” Right now, Kyiv is “not fighting only for Ukraine, but for all of us,” she said. Kaljulaid believes the current crisis poses a threat to Europe’s entire security architecture. “If we are too focused on Ukraine and whether it'll be a slice or a bigger slice, I think we are missing the big picture.”

Read Now Show less
Petraeus: Taking Ukraine Is One Thing, Holding Onto It Is Another | GZERO World

Petraeus: Taking Ukraine is one thing, holding onto it is another

At the first in-person Munich Security Conference in two years, world leaders gathered amidst the greatest threat to European peace since World War II. As over 150,000 Russian troops surrounded Ukraine's border, poised to invade, Ian Bremmer sat down with former CIA Director and retired four star general David Petraeus for an upcoming episode of GZERO World. He knows a thing or two about invasions, having played pivotal roles in both of America's military campaigns in Iraq over the past thirty years. And as he tells Ian Bremmer, invading a country is one thing. Holding onto it is quite another.

Read Now Show less
Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Major Escalation This Week | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Russia-Ukraine crisis: Major escalation this week

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on the major escalation this week over the big issue everyone is worried about: Russia and Ukraine.

Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And I'm on the ground in Munich where the sun is popping through. I wish I could say that that had some symbolism. It does not appear this way. It is the first major security confab to come together post-pandemic or in pandemic. And there's still all sorts of vigorous rules and regulations on how few people can come and everyone wearing masks and social distancing. But the major leaders are all arriving, and they're arriving at a time of extreme geopolitical concern.

Read Now Show less

The Graphic Truth: How do Russia and Ukraine stack up?

President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that he would “pull back” some troops from the Ukrainian border, but military analysts say the Russian threat still looms large. Russia undoubtedly has the upper hand given its superior military capabilities and economic clout. In recent years, however, Ukraine has received a significant cache of weapons and cash from the West, particularly from the United States. We take a look at how the two countries stack up against one another.

What would a Russian invasion of Ukraine actually look like?

No one knows whether Russian President Vladimir Putin plans on invading Ukraine. But the president of the United States sure seems to think this is a real possibility, saying Wednesday that Putin will likely "move in" in the near term. Biden, prone to political gaffes, was then forced to awkwardly walk back comments that Russia would face milder consequences from the West in the event of a "minor incursion."

The timing of this blunder is... not great. It comes just as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepares to meet his Russian counterpart on Friday in hopes of lowering the temperature after recent diplomatic efforts in Geneva were deemed a failure by Moscow.

Indeed, with the Kremlin having amassed at least 100,000 troops surrounding Ukraine on three sides, the growing threat is impossible to ignore. So what would a Russian military offensive into Ukraine actually look like, and how might the West respond?

Read Now Show less

What We’re Watching: Global Gateways vs Belt and Road, US-Russia tit-for-tat, Germany’s COVID challenge

The EU rivals China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The European Commission has unveiled its Global Gateways plan, which aims to invest €300 billion globally in infrastructure projects by 2027. Indeed, Brussels is positioning its plan as a better alternative to China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. This announcement comes as Beijing has been steadily upping its investment in the Global South, including a pledge this week to supply Africa with an additional 1 billion COVID vaccine doses over the next three years, as well as doling out $10 billion of trade finance to support African exports. But European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen points to several advantages for the European plan. One, Global Gateway focuses both on physical infrastructure – like fiber-optic cables, transportation, healthcare and clean energy resources – as well as investment in research and education. And unlike Beijing’s plan, which saddles recipient countries with debt, the EU will provide cash “under fair and favorable terms.” Its plan will also include buy-in from Europe’s robust private sector. Beijing has not commented on the development, but the Chinese foreign minister’s visit to Ethiopia on Wednesday was likely intended to signal Beijing’s enduring commitment to the region.

Read Now Show less

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter, Signal

Latest