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US government shutdown: No end in sight
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics:
How long will a US government shutdown last?
I'm here in Miami, Florida, which feels very far away from the drama happening in Washington, DC this week, where the House and Senate are unlikely to agree on a new government funding bill in time to stop a government shutdown from happening on Saturday night.
This raises a couple of key important questions. One, what are they fighting for? Well, there's a group of conservatives in the House who want to see deep deep spending cuts on appropriated spending. That means defense spending and all non-mandatory spending, like interest payments and Social Security and they're piqued that the government has grown quite a bit since pre-pandemic and they want to see about a 10% cut back to 2022 levels. And they're unlikely to get it because most other members of Congress are in favor of the debt limit deal that was agreed to earlier this year, which would have increased defense spending by about 3% and kept all non-defense discretionary spending flat.
Two, how are they going to get out of this thing? Well, no one's quite no one quite knows. There's some talk about a deal to exchange Ukraine money in order for border funds, some funds to secure the southern border and stop the flow of migrants coming over the border. But it's really unclear at this point whether or not that kind of deal can work out or if it can be worked out quickly given the deep divides between the House and the Senate.
And then three is how long is this thing going to last? And while it could be resolved early next week, some of the pain of the federal government shutdown starts to hit in for constituents, lawmakers. This could also potentially go deep into October. And as it goes deeper into October, the vast majority of members of Congress who want to see the debt limit deal be honored with the 3% increase in defense and 0% increase across the board that I talked about earlier. They may start to feel more pressure to agree to some additional cuts, which means that you could see those cuts be enacted into law as the price of the government reopen. Probably this will be resolved in the next week or so with another deal to extend current levels of funding until November, mid-November. And then we're going to be right back in the soup, having to deal with this all over again later this year.
So lots of drama still to come. Outlook is very uncertain and this could go on for weeks if not much longer than that.
- Will McCarthy stop a government shutdown? ›
- US debt ceiling looms over a House divided ›
- Who will cave on raising US debt ceiling (again?) ›
- Explaining the long history of US debt (& which other countries are saddled with debt) ›
- US debt hits record: Should you worry? ›
- Biden returns to join US debt ceiling talks ›
- The Graphic Truth: Who blew up the US national debt? ›
- Democrats and Republicans unite! At least against China. ›
- Episode 1: What infrastructure spending means for you ›
- Chris Christie weighs in on US debt limit fight ›
Chris Christie interview: The truth about the 2024 GOP primary race
Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie is playing coy on whether he'll throw his hat in the ring for the Republican presidential nomination for 2024, indicating he might simply influence the conversation from afar. In a wide-ranging interview with Ian Bremmer, Christie outlines the stark reality he sees about the GOP primary as things begin to heat up on the campaign trail. "I think there's one lane for the nomination, and right now, Donald Trump's in the front of that lane," Christie tells Bremmer. "And if you want to get in the front of that lane, you better intervene and go right through him because otherwise trying to go around him, I don't think it's a strategy."
Note: This interview was first featured in the GZERO World episode "Republican identity crisis: Chris Christie vs. Donald Trump," published on May 15, 2023.
On the debt celing, he's confident that Republicans and Democrats will avert disaster; on Ron DeSantis, he thinks the Florida Governor has made his Disney-doomed bed and has to sleep in it. He also shares his views on culture war issues, foreign policy, and Russia/Ukraine, where the former Governor's insistence on continued support for Ukraine is decidedly clearer than Trump's.
What Eurovision means to Ukrainians at war
Where else will you find banana-inspired wolves, dubstep rapping astronauts, or earworms about vampires? It’s Eurovision, of course: the 70-year-old song contest that pits nations against each other in an annual spectacle of camp, kitsch, and catchy melodies.
But for Ukrainians – who have won the contest three times in the past 20 years – the contest is about something much more.
On GZERO Reports, we visit a secret Eurovision watch party outside of Kyiv, a drag party in New York City, and look at how Eurovision is more political than you – or those wolves, astronauts, and vampires – could imagine.
For the uninitiated, the colorful annual Eurovision Song Contest pits countries against each other in a spectacle of camp, kitsch, and catchy pop music. It’s like the Olympics meets American Idol meets Burning Man. Each country submits an original song, and the winner is chosen through a combination of audience and professional jury votes.
The European Broadcasting Union, which organizes Eurovision, says the contest isn’t political (they turned down Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's request to speak at the finale), but in its almost 70-year history, politics have always found a way of creeping in.
Last Saturday’s Grand Finale was no exception. This year’s contest, held in Liverpool, England, was full of messages of unity and support for Ukraine, who could not host Eurovision after winning in 2022 because of the Russian invasion. GZERO traveled to two very different Eurovision watch parties—one in the heart of New York City and one in an undisclosed location on the outskirts of Kyiv—to see how politics and pop music come together for fans around the world.
"Just to see so much solidarity and so much diversity of thought and backgrounds embracing Ukraine through the power of music is very encouraging,” said Maxim Ibadov, the National Coordinator of RUSA LGBTQ+ and organizer of the NYC event, “Because Ukraine has beautiful culture and I’m so happy it’s being celebrated.”
Watch the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television, airing nationwide. Check local listings.
- Hard Numbers: German arms for Ukraine, Serbia rejects ‘thoughts and prayers,' deadly storm hits Myanmar and Bangladesh, Sweden sweeps Eurovision ›
- The Graphic Truth: Eurovision – beating swords into microphones, sort of ›
- Hard Numbers: Ukraine wins Eurovision, Somalia’s new prez, Venezuela woos investors, CDU victory ›
Podcast: Conservatives no more? Why Chris Christie is criticizing Trump and DeSantis
Listen:The upcoming GOP presidential primary will be many things – expensive, long, chaotic – but one thing we know for sure is that it won't be pretty. And one potential Trump rival, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, is ready to embrace the ugly. In a wide-ranging interview with Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World podcast, Christie outlines the stark reality he sees as things begin to heat up on the campaign trail. "I think there's one lane for the nomination, and right now, Donald Trump's in the front of that lane," Christie tells Bremmer. "And if you want to get in the front of that lane, you better intervene and go right through him because otherwise, trying to go around him, I don't think it's a strategy."
While Christie is still playing coy on whether he'll throw his hat in the ring or simply influence the conversation from afar, he spoke with clarity and confidence on a wide variety of issues. On the debt ceiling, he's confident that Republicans and Democrats will avert disaster; on DeSantis, he thinks the Florida governor has made his Disney-doomed bed and has to sleep in it. On the culture war issues...well, you'll just have to listen to the show. They also talk foreign policy and specifically Russia/Ukraine, where the former Governor's insistence on continued support for Ukraine is decidedly starker than what President Trump said on CNN last week.
- Podcast: Can the US get its act together? Susan Glasser & Peter Baker on "the world’s greatest geopolitical crisis" ›
- Podcast: Mitt Romney on uncharted US waters, Russian malevolence, & China’s economic ambition ›
- NatCon 2022: Conservatives rethink foundations of the American right ›
- Will Trump’s 2024 candidacy sink Republicans? ›
- Podcast: Trumped up charges? The law & politics of investigating a president's crimes ›
- Chris Christie interview: The truth about the 2024 GOP primary race - GZERO Media ›
Christie: US should keep leading Ukraine aid
Should the United States be doing more or less in its support for Ukraine? It depends on who you ask.
There is a growing rift within the Republican Party over how much the United States should be assisting Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion. At town hall discussion on CNN May 10, former president Donald Trump refused to commit to sending more aid to the country if he wins the White House, reflecting the growing anti-war sentiment from the MAGA wing of the party.
Former NJ governor and rumored GOP candidate, Chris Christie, strongly disagrees. Christie says the US should have done more from the beginning of the war, and argued on GZERO World that the America should remain a global leader in providing military equipment to Kyiv.
Not only is it good for Ukraine, he says, but it’s also an important part of the US’s efforts to counter China’s growing influence.
“In the end, we are in a proxy war right now with China, whether we like it or not, and their support of Russia in Ukraine is proof of that” Christie tells Ian Bremmer. “We have to make sure we send a very clear message, not only to the Chinese, but to our own allies that America’s not going to be a cut and run country.”
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television, airing nationwide. Check local listings.
- Why Trump chose CNN for his Town Hall ›
- Chris Christie weighs in on US debt limit fight ›
- Europe plans for Putin & Trump 2.0 ›
- The war in Ukraine is nowhere near over ›
- Is US support for Ukraine waning? ›
- Time favors ... Ukraine or Russia? ›
- Republican identity crisis: Chris Christie vs. Donald Trump - GZERO Media ›
- Chris Christie interview: The truth about the 2024 GOP primary race - GZERO Media ›
Why neither NATO nor Russia wants to escalate war in Ukraine
Don't use the "e" word. NATO's increased military support of Ukraine is not an escalation, says Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană, it is a "dynamic adjustment." Geoană spoke to Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, an annual gathering of world leaders, diplomats, and security experts in the Bavarian city. "The fundamental job of NATO is to defend allies, territory, population," Geoană told Ian Bremmer, "there's no escalation, there is a changing nature of the battlefield, and it's normal."
The two discussed the war a year after Russia's invasion, how far Western support for Ukraine should go, and how soon NATO might accept Ukraine as a full-fledged member of the alliance. Catch GZERO's full interview with Deputy Secretary Geoana on this week's episode of "GZERO World with Ian Bremmer," airing on US public television stations nationwide. Check local listings.
NATO's confidence as Ukraine enters year 2 of war
In 2022, NATO got its groove back. Sweden and Finland applied for membership after decades of thinking it was safer to stay neutral. Germany announced a huge increase in defense spending, and walked back their own red line of sending weapons to conflict zones. In 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, and only 3 of NATO’s then-28 members met the target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. Now, nine countries do, and 19 more have plans to hit 2% by 2024. Still, it’s a hard argument to make as global inflation limits the buying power of those military budgets.
Ian Bremmer spoke with NATO’s Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană about the lessons learned during year one of the war and what comes next. Despite the cohesion, there’s tension brewing: NATO members have very different ideas about how far to go in supporting Ukraine; they blame each other for delays in weapon deliveries; And Turkey, of course, still holding up Finland and Sweden’s membership; no to mention there’s a limit to global trust and information sharing.
Watch the interview on this week's episode of "GZERO World with Ian Bremmer," airing on US public television stations nationwide. Check your local listings.
- What We’re Watching: NATO members’ defense budgets, Social Security as a political weapon, China’s support for Sri Lanka ›
- Russian cyber attack could trigger NATO’s Article 5, warns NATO Deputy Secretary General ›
- As Russia balks, NATO might gain two strong Nordic recruits ›
- Should NATO embrace Ukraine? ›
- Why neither NATO nor Russia wants to escalate war in Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
- War in Ukraine heading to "violent" new phase, warns NATO's Mircea Geoană - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: how NATO got its groove back - GZERO Media ›
Opera legend Renée Fleming on how Russia's war in Ukraine has impacted classical music
Should Russian artists be blamed for Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine? In the weeks following the invasion, big stars like Metropolitan Opera star soprano Anna Netrebko or Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra director Valery Gergiev lost their jobs after refusing to condemn Putin.
"I think everyone is on the side of supporting Ukraine. Everyone. I mean, bar none," legendary soprano Renée Fleming tells GZERO on the sidelines of the 2023 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where she received one of this year's coveted Crystal Awards.
Still, Fleming feels sympathetic toward the many Russian artists who've been dropped by employers and audiences. The same goes for those who have been caught in the cross hairs because they were already studying or touring in the US.
The soprano hopes that we keep supporting them because the war will eventually end. But until that happens, she adds, "everyone's support, for the moment, is 100% with Ukraine."
- Ian Bremmer: US support for Ukraine vs fear of Russian escalation ›
- The Graphic Truth: Piling sanctions on Russia ›
- What We’re Watching: China’s Ukraine dilemma, Russian sanctions avoid SWIFT ›
- Russian ruble weathers sanctions storm ›
- A world in need of music therapy: Renée Fleming at Davos - GZERO Media ›