So, what's going to happen in 2023? Well, first, Putin is going to fail on the ground in Ukraine, and it might be worse than that, Ukraine, for him, Ukraine might be able to retake a lot of the land in counter offensives that the Russians have taken, maybe even threatening to retake Crimea. Russia will increasingly not even be in a position to punish the Ukrainians the way they have in the last couple months because Ukrainian air defenses will get a lot more effective, especially when the Patriot missile system is stood up. So, what can the Russians do unless the country's going to give up? Unless they're going to simply sort of surrender, which I don't expect.
And so, the outcome is likely to be that Putin's going to escalate. An escalation means that the war is increasingly going to hit NATO, asymmetric attacks, cyber, fiber, pipeline, disinformation, espionage. In other words, rogue Russia is going to look to NATO the way rogue Iran has looked to the Middle East. Russia will become the most powerful rogue state that the world has ever experienced.
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